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«MAY 2016 This document was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by The Cloudburst Group for ...»

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USAID/ETHIOPIA LAND

ADMINISTRATION TO

NURTURE DEVELOPMENT

(LAND) AFAR

Impact Evaluation Design Report

MAY 2016

This document was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It

was prepared by The Cloudburst Group for the Evaluation, Research, and Communication (ERC) Task

Order under the Strengthening Tenure and Resource Rights (STARR) IQC.

Written and prepared by Dr. Heather Huntington, Aleta Haflett Starosta, and Aidan Schneider, with contributions from Nicole Walter, Kate Marple-Cantrell, and Stephanie Fenner.

Prepared for the United States Agency for International Development, USAID Contract Number AIDOAA-TO-13-00019, Evaluation, Research and Communication (ERC) Task Order under Strengthening Tenure and Resource Rights (STARR) IQC No. AID-OAA-I-12-00030.

Implemented by:

The Cloudburst Group 8400 Corporate Drive, Suite 550 Landover, MD 20785-2238 USAID/Ethiopia Land Administration To Nurture Development (LAND) Afar Impact Evaluation Design Report MAY 2016

DISCLAIMER

The authors' views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

CONTENTS

CONTENTS

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

1.0 INTRODUCTION

2.0 BACKGROUND

ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL CONTEXT OF THE AFAR REGION

3.0 LAND INTERVENTIONS AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

INTRODUCTION

OVERVIEW OF LAND

LAND COMPONENT 4: INTERVENTIONS

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

4.0 HYPOTHESES, DATA SOURCES, & INDICATORS

RESEARCH HYPOTHESES (H)

DATA SOURCES

5.0 RESEARCH & SURVEY METHODOLOGY

CONTROL SITE SELECTION

LIMITATIONS OF DIFFERENCE-IN-DIFFERENCES

MATCHED OR REWEIGHTED DIFFERENCE-IN-DIFFERENCES

6.0 POWER ANALYSIS

HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL OUTCOMES

GANTA-LEVEL OUTCOMES

7.0 CONCERNS AND CONSIDERATIONS

LOGISTICS AND PREPAREDNESS

LACK OF INFORMATION

LIMITATIONS OF DIFFERENCE IN DIFFERENCE

INSUFFICIENT SAMPLE SIZE

MATURATION

HUMAN SUBJECT PROTECTION

ATTRITION

8.0 IMPACT EVALUATION TIMELINE AND TEAM COMPOSITION

IMPACT EVALUATION TEAM

USAID/Ethiopia LAND Afar: Impact Evaluation Design Report i

9.0 DELIVERABLES

BASELINE REPORT

FULLY DOCUMENTED DATA SET AND CODEBOOK

IMPACT EVALUATION REPORT

JOURNAL ARTICLES

PRESENTATIONS

DISSEMINATION

10.0 REFERENCES

ANNEX 1—AFAR LAND COMMUNITY LISTING SUMMARY

USAID/Ethiopia LAND Afar: Impact Evaluation Design Report ii

ACRONYMS AND

ABBREVIATIONS

Mean (average) σ Standard Deviation μ ATE Average Treatment Effect CLR Cluster Level Reliability CLGE Community Land Governance Entity DD Difference-in-Difference DEC Development Experience Clearinghouse ERC Evaluation, Research, Communication GIS Geographic Information System GoE Government of Ethiopia H Hypothesis IBLI Index Based Livestock Insurance ICC Intra-Class Correlation IE Impact Evaluation IRB Institutional Review Board FGD Focus Group Discussions FTF Feed the Future KII Key Informant Interview LAND Land Administration to Nurture Development LTPR Land Tenure and Property Rights LTD Land Tenure Division M&E Monitoring & Evaluation MDES Minimum Detectable Effect Size MoA Ministry of Agriculture USAID/Ethiopia LAND Afar: Impact Evaluation Design Report iii MUAC Mid-Upper Arm Circumference N Number of Respondents NGO Non-Government Organization PLI Pastoral Livelihoods Initiative PPS Probability Proportionate to Size PRIME Pastoralist Areas Resilience Improvement and Market Expansion RCT Randomized Control Trial RFP Request for Proposals SNNPR Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region STARR Strengthening Tenure and Resource Rights SSA Sub-Saharan Africa TLU Tropical Livestock Unit USAID U.S. Agency for International Development USAID/Ethiopia LAND Afar: Impact Evaluation Design Report iv

1.0 INTRODUCTION This report describes an impact evaluation (IE) design for work being conducted under the ERC Task Order # AID-OAA-TO-13-00019 for USAID/Ethiopia’s Land Administration to Nurture Development Project (LAND, 2013–2018), which is being implemented by Tetra Tech. This evaluation will focus on land tenure security impacts in Ethiopia’s Afar Region, in the Chifra and Amibara woredas, Administrative Zones 1 and 3 respectively.1 These two woredas were identified by LAND, in consultation with the Afar regional government, for initial implementation of a pilot land certification program for Afar pastoralists.

Globally, the commons (communally managed areas) remain highly vulnerable, with land being allocated for commercial agricultural investment and infrastructure development on a regular basis. In particular this is true of the rangelands, where external interest in land for agriculture—and in its resources for other commercial ventures, such as tourism—has grown. Pastoralists are therefore concerned about the risk of expropriation and fear losing their land due to expropriation by the state, since their migratory and herding patterns may coincide or intersect with land expropriated for commercial purposes (Cotula & Vermeulen 2009). Even the most progressive policies and legislation often fail to provide adequate protection to many rangeland users and, most commonly, to the poorest and least powerful.





The USAID/Ethiopia LAND Project aims to adopt a locally appropriate model to protect the land and resource rights of pastoral communities. The Ethiopia LAND Project proposes an innovative approach to working with customary pastoral communities to increase land and resource tenure security, as well as with regional governments to develop policies and regulations that allow communal land rights to be recognized and certified. LAND represents an original program to strengthen land tenure security among pastoralists through a pilot certification process. As such, it is important to document the impact of the new formalization approach on pastoral communities and households, including the program’s effect on livelihoods, resilience, tenure security, and conflict.

This impact evaluation proposes a framework for measuring the key development impacts of the LAND program in the Chifra and Amibara woredas. In particular, this evaluation seeks to assess the outcomes and impacts of interventions that fall under Component 4 of the LAND project, including formal recognition of customary land rights, improving communal land governance, as well as strengthening pastoral communities’ capacity for land use planning and management and investment negotiations.

The overarching policy question that underlies this evaluation of LAND’s Component 4 is:

To what extent does empowering pastoral communities with stronger land rights, improved land governance institutions, increased negotiation capacity, and better land use planning result in increased community investment and equitable economic growth?

1 The LAND project is also being implemented in Oromia and Somali Regional States. USAID has already implemented baseline data collection for the evaluation of LAND activities in the Oromia region. This evaluation design is focused solely on the activities in Afar.

USAID/Ethiopia LAND Afar: Impact Evaluation Design Report 1 Based on the overarching policy question, a number of research objectives have been developed to focus the evaluation activities. Specifically, the evaluation will investigate the extent to which the package of interventions constituting Component 4 of USAID’s LAND program generate the following outcomes

and impacts:

1. Reduced incidence of community land expropriation without adequate consultation and fair and timely compensation;

2. Increased number of mutually beneficial contracts between communities and private sector investors;

3. Increased transparency, accountability, and representativeness of customary land governance institutions;

4. Improved land use planning and sustainable land management of communal lands;

5. Increased adoption of new or more sustainable economic (livelihood) strategies;

6. Increased or improved household/community assets, consumption, and/or investment;

7. Reduced incidence of unauthorized users encroaching on community land; and

8. Enhanced livelihood and welfare outcomes for minority or vulnerable groups, including women, the resource-constrained, agro-pastoralists, and youth within the targeted communities.

These eight evaluation objectives form the basis for a series of testable development hypotheses and indicators on the impact of LAND, as well as for measuring the magnitude of that impact. The evaluation will provide an evidence base for improved policy making and programming by testing the development hypothesis that pastoral and agro-pastoral communities with stronger communal land rights are able to more effectively connect with and benefit from livestock markets and other economic opportunities, including through partnerships with private sector investors (e.g., abattoirs). As such, the evaluation will enable LAND’s program theory to be validated, and adjusted if required, before the project is implemented on a larger scale across the country.

What follows in this report is an exploration of the theoretical underpinnings of the proposed program intervention, the theory of change, and the impact evaluation design.

USAID/Ethiopia LAND Afar: Impact Evaluation Design Report 2

2.0 BACKGROUND This section provides background information on the economic, ecological, geographic and social context of the Afar region, the focus of this IE. It includes an overview of efforts to improve tenure security in Ethiopia, which to date have concentrated almost exclusively on highland cropping areas through a certification program based on individual farm parcels. Lowland pastoralist areas in Ethiopia, including Afar region, are predominantly based on common property tenure systems and have not yet been included in certification programs. To ground the research, the discussion focuses on the development problem that LAND seeks to remedy and describes the Afar region's customary institutions and community governance structures that motivate the LAND interventions under evaluation.

Pastoralists in many developing countries suffer from insecure land tenure because they lack formalized property rights, even though there may be informal recognition that they occupy land that is collectively owned by the community. An effective formalization scheme will codify these customary claims to land and ensure that government capacity exists to implement and enforce these rights. Several other African countries have taken these steps to enhance the tenure security of pastoralists by securing customary rights to land (Flintan 2011). Projects in Niger have, under the Code Rural, adopted approaches that allow for the mapping of migration routes and the registration of household grazing parcels (Rota et al.

2009). In the Chad Basin region of northern Cameroon, pastoralists effectively maintain pastures and water sources as a secure common pool resource. This management pattern is respected by the national government, and migratory corridors are protected by national and international agreements (Moritz et al. 2013).2 Since the mid 1990’s, Ethiopia has also made tremendous progress in reforming land policy and supporting land administration systems in the country’s highlands through the implementation of one of the largest, fastest, and lowest cost land registration and certification reforms in Africa (Deininger et al.

2008). In these highland regions, where approximately 97% of all households now have some type of land use documentation (whether 1st level or 2nd level certification3), research suggests that formalization has had an array of benefits, including increased agricultural investment and productivity, as well as reduced incidence of land-related conflict (Deininger et al. 2011; Holden et al. 2009). Despite the success of certification efforts in the highland regions, little progress has been made to strengthen and support land administration systems in lowland areas that are home to a large number of pastoralists.

Land in these areas remains communally administered through customary practices.

More than half of Ethiopia’s land is used for pastoral purposes, but these activities are routinely viewed as having little economic value (USAID/Ethiopia 2014). Although pastoralists’ land rights are recognized by the Ethiopian Constitution, these lands are still sometimes perceived as unoccupied and, therefore, 2 Another positive example comes from highland Bolivia, where pastoral communities have secure rights at the hamlet level which allows pastoral groups to control entry and use of scarce resources in customary ways (UNDP 2004).

3 The key difference between first level and second level certifications is the detail of spatial information captured in the certificate. Unlike first level certification where land was identified primarily by field markings and location relative to other characteristics (e.g., next to a road), second level certification uses geographic information system (GIS) to delineate the land and assigns latitude and longitude coordinates to the boundaries.



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