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As far as socioeconomic perspective, the results showed that most of the entrepreneurs generated between 0-50,000.00 that clearly demonstrated money is a significant factor, in order to start and maintain growth through entrepreneurship. Despite individual biases that are exhibited through discrimination and the competitive race for resources and wealth, it is vital as minority entrepreneurs to explore various nonconventional opportunities for funding, in order to start and maintain business growth. For example, peer to peer financing enables entrepreneurs to borrow money online with less than perfect personal credit history. The interest rates of peer to peer financing are less than traditional lenders and the administrative processes are not as challenging compared to traditional lenders. The opportunity of peer to peer financing can improve entrepreneurs’ personal credit, as well. Another option for funding, crowdfunding enables entrepreneurs to generate revenue based on various types of startup endeavors and ongoing projects in their businesses. The fundraising goal must be moderate, in order to expect to receive funding from donors. If the fundraising goal is not achieved, then all of the donations are not provided for funding purposes. The third option for funding, micro financing, enables entrepreneurs to borrow fifty thousand dollars (50,000.00) or less and pay it back within a shorter period time.
GCBF ♦ Vol. 11 ♦ No. 1 ♦ 2016 ♦ ISSN 1941-9589 ONLINE & ISSN 2168-0612 USB Flash Drive 366 Global Conference on Business and Finance Proceedings ♦ Volume 11 ♦ Number 1 Additional resources can be obtained by joining associations, such as Minority Business Development Agency, (MBDA) and Minority and Women Business Enterprise (MWBE). Both associations are able to offer assistance, and support with access to capital and resources. The services extend to Women, African Americans, Asian Americans, Hasidic Jews, Hispanic Americans, Native Americans, Pacific Islanders and Veterans. As a result, the creative ways to secure revenue and opportunities to network through minority associations can lead to marketing and access to additional resources for business growth (White, 2010)..
Additional revenue and resources can help minority entrepreneurs focus on other areas, such as relationships with employees and customers. Entrepreneurs must invest in professional training themselves, however, it is equally important to provide professional training to employees and contractors, in order to excel professionally and financially. At the same time, entrepreneurs must cultivate positive relationships with employees through incentives to increase revenue, quality with customer service, in order to increase long term customers and employees (Iyigun & Owen, 1999). As a result, the ability to hire competent employees can enable minority entrepreneurs to operate their existing business. Meanwhile, they are able to increase growth with other business opportunities through effective planning. The need to increase and improve business growth creates a balance of positive emotional thinking with realistic goals, planning and projections, in order to experience effective results (Saravathy, Memon and Kuechle, 2011, Bergen & Bressler 2011). Future research is needed to obtain feedback from a larger sample of the population, in order to explore an in-depth analysis of entrepreneurial drives among minority entrepreneurs and their business challenges.
REFERENCESAnderson, C. (1995, July). Affirmative action promised blacks fairness and justice. Michigan Chronicle, 58(43), 6-8.
Bergen, C.W., & Bressler, M.S. (2011). Too much positive thinking hinders entrepreneur’s success. Journal of Business and Entrepreneurship, 23(1), 30-34.
Bruton, G., Khavul, S., Siegal, D.& Wright, M. (2015). New financial alternatives in seeding entrepreneurship: microfinance, crowdfunding, and peer‐to‐peer innovations. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, 39(1), 9-26.
Carland, J.W. & Carland, J.C., (2000). New venture creation model. Journal of Business and Entrepreneurship, 12(3), 29-39.
Davidson, M.J., Fielden, S.L., & Omar, A. (2010). Black. Asian and minority ethnic female business owners. International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behavior & Research, 16(1), 58-80.
Ensley, M.D., Carland, J.W., & Carland, J.C. (2000). Investigating the existence of the lead entrepreneur., 38(4), 59-77.
Geho, P.R., & Frakes, J. (2013). Financing for small business in a sluggish economy versus conflicting impulses of the entrepreneur., 18(1), 89-101.
Gordon Rouse, K.A. (2004, November/December). Beyond Maslow's hierarchy of needs what do people strive for?. Performance Improvement, 43(10), 27-31.
Hirsch, N.A., & Jack, A.A. (2012). What we face framing problems in the black community. DuBois Review, 9(1), 133-148.
GCBF ♦ Vol. 11 ♦ No. 1 ♦ 2016 ♦ ISSN 1941-9589 ONLINE & ISSN 2168-0612 USB Flash Drive 367 Global Conference on Business and Finance Proceedings ♦ Volume 11 ♦ Number 1 Holland, D.V., & Garrett, R.P. (2015). Entrepreneur start-up versus persistence decisions: a critical evaluation of expectancy and value. International Small Business Journal, 33(2), 194-215.
Iyigun, M.F., & Owen, A.L. (1999). Entrepreneurs, professionals and growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 4(2), 213-232.
Lottie, A.J., & Clemens Noda, P.A. (2003). The suppression of diversity. Ethnic Studies Review, 26(2), 27-50.
Robinson, S., & Stubberud, H.A. (2011). Gender differences in entrepreneurs' perceived problems, profits and plans. International Journal of Entrepreneurship, 15(1), 25-42.
Sarasvathy, S., Menon, A., & Kuechle, G. (2013). Failing firms and successful entrepreneurs: serial entrepreneurship as a temporal portfolio. Small Business Econ, 40(1), 417-434.
Schultz, C.P., & Achtenhagen, L. (2013). Discouraging stereotypes? US newspaper coverage of ethnic minority entrepreneurs before the economic downturn. Journalism, 14(8), 1059-1075.
Singh, R.P., & Gibbs, S.R. (2013). Opportunity recognition processes of black entrepreneurs. Journal of Small Business & Entrepreneurship, 26(6), 643-659.
White, R. (2010, February). Challenges encountered by women and minorities in business. I-manager’s Journal on Management, 4(3), 65-71.
Wilson, L.A., & Davis, L. (1973, October). Problems of black business. Journal of Small Business Management, 11(1), 1-5.
BIOGRAPHYTamara Clark-Gill, Ph.D. serves as a College Campus Chair for the School of Business at the University of Phoenix. She has over 14 years of experience teaching Business and Psychology Graduate and Undergraduate programs in various colleges and universities within New York and New Jersey. Also, she has worked in various industries, such as Human Resources, Vocational Education and Non Profit Organizations. She can be contacted at University of Phoenix, 535 Connecticut Avenue, Suite 400 Norwalk, CT 06854.
GCBF ♦ Vol. 11 ♦ No. 1 ♦ 2016 ♦ ISSN 1941-9589 ONLINE & ISSN 2168-0612 USB Flash Drive 368 Global Conference on Business and Finance Proceedings ♦ Volume 11 ♦ Number 1
Most technical analysis tools focus traditionally on the simple and exponential moving average technique.
This study looks at the performance of an optimized fractal adaptive moving average strategy over different frequency intervals, where the Euro/US Dollar currency pair is analyzed due to the increased correlation between the Euro Index and EUR/USD, and the Dollar Index and EUR/USD over the last year compared to the last 15 years. The optimized strategy is evaluated against a buy-and-hold strategy over the 2000period, using annualized returns, annualized risk and Sharpe performance measure. Due to the existence of different number of long and short trades in every trading scenario, this paper proposes the use of a new measure called the Sharpe/Total trades ratio which takes into account the number of trades when evaluating the different trading strategies. Findings strongly support the use of the adaptive fractal moving average model over the naïve buy-and-hold strategy where the former yielded higher annualized returns, lower annualized risk, a higher Sharpe value, although it was subject to more trades than the buyand-hold strategy. The best market timing strategy occurred when using 131 daily fractal data with a Sharpe/Total trades ratio of 0.31%.
JEL: G11, G15, G17 KEYWORDS: Adaptive Fractal Moving Average, Currency Market, Trading Strategy
INTRODUCTIONMost if not all decisions made in financial markets by investors have considered the use of techniques like fundamental analysis and technical analysis, whether the period of investing is for a short time or long period, or whether it is an active or passive trading strategy. For instance, Dimson et al. (2002) showed that many global asset classes in the twentieth century produced spectacular gains in wealth for individuals who bought and held those assets for generation-long holding periods, but the assets also went through regular and painful drawdowns like 2008. All of the G-7 countries have experienced at least one period where stocks lost 75% of their value. Conversely, Faber (2013) found that, using an out-sampling testing comparison between a timing model and a buy-and-hold strategy from 2006-2012, the timing strategy beat the buy and hold by over two percentage points per year, with much less volatility and most importantly to many investors, lower drawdowns. Taylor and Allen (2002), after conducting a survey with chief foreign exchange dealers in the UK, found that 90 percent of respondents placed some weight on technical analysis, with a skew towards relying on technical analysis as opposed to fundamental analysis. Similarly, Lui and Mole (1998), after conducting a survey with foreign dealers in Hong Kong, found that technical analysis is considered slightly more useful in forecasting trends than fundamental analysis, but significantly more useful in predicting turning points. More importantly, moving average (MA) and/or other trend-following systems are the most useful technical technique. One of the main reasons such tools are used widely is due to the fact that people adjust less by staying close to their anchors (here being the investment tools they used more frequently) as proposed in Epley and Gilovich (2006), where they confirmed that adjustment to other techniques is indeed an effortful operation.
GCBF ♦ Vol. 11 ♦ No. 1 ♦ 2016 ♦ ISSN 1941-9589 ONLINE & ISSN 2168-0612 USB Flash Drive 369 Global Conference on Business and Finance Proceedings ♦ Volume 11 ♦ Number 1 While existing literature about the success of trend following systems is abundant, Zweig and Goldfischer (1986) and Hayes (2000) provide a good review of pioneer systems like the Dow Theory, which upon which today's Dow Jones Industrial Average is based from. The existence of technical analysis based systems, with particular reference to the moving average, can be traced back to Tintner (1935) and Cowles (1933).
Perhaps the most cited long term measurement of trend among technical analysts is the 200 day MA.
Spiegel (2013), using a percentage price oscillator approach with 1% up and down variation, testing the long run MA on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) over the 1886-2006 period, and found the market timing strategy to outperform a buy-and-hold strategy. Similar results were held for the Nasdaq Composite Index. Overall, the uses of the MA technique resulted in annual excess return of 4% (adjusted for transaction costs) with 25% less volatility, when comparing the market timing and buy and hold strategies.
Using a similar approach, Faber (2013) tested the a 10 month MA for the S&P500 market index over the 1901-2012 period and found the market timing strategy to outperform a buy-and-hold of the index in terms of returns, volatility and Sharpe performance measurements. The use of the MA strategy had fewer instances of both large gains and large losses, with correspondingly higher occurrences of small gains and losses. Basically, the technical analysis tool signaled when an investor should be long a riskier asset class (equity) with upside potentials, and when to be out and sitting in cash (lower risk asset class). Alternatively stated, the MA strategy avoids the far left tail of big losses while sacrificing the far right tail of big gains.
A popular use for moving averages is to develop simple trading systems based on moving average crossovers. A trading system using two moving averages would give a buy signal when the shorter (faster) moving average advances above the longer (slower) moving average. A sell signal would be given when the shorter moving average crosses below the longer moving average. The speed of the systems and the number of signals generated will depend on the length of the moving averages. Shorter moving average systems will be faster, generate more signals and be more prone for early entry. However, they will also generate more false signals than systems with longer moving averages. Gurrib (2015) optimized a simple moving average strategy using daily ETF funds data against a simple buy and hold strategy, and find higher absolute returns and risk for the buy-and-hold strategy, particularly during correction waves of the last fifteen years. While the optimized double cross over strategy resulted in a relatively lower risk and returns, the market timing strategy still outperformed the naïve buy-and-hold strategy, with a relatively higher Sharpe performance measure. Although Todea and Zoicas-Ienciu (2011) finds consistent positive returns when using the moving average crossover strategy, the study did not adjust for risk. While Kaufman and Chaikin (1991) find several price-volume crossover patterns to be significant in forecasting stock or commodity prices, Anghel (2013) finds the moving crossover strategy to produce consistent excess returns and lower risk when compared with a buy-and-hold strategy for companies on the Bucharest Stock Exchange.