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«Green industrial policy Dani Rodrik* Downloaded from at Princeton University on February 5, 2015 Abstract Green ...»

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In the second-best setting of green growth, what ultimately matters is whether the global supply of green technologies expands (good) or contracts (bad). From a global standpoint, it would be far better if national competitiveness concerns were to lead to a subsidy war than a tariff war. The former expands the global supply of clean technologies while the latter restricts it. So far, that is largely what we have been getting. But there is no guarantee that we can extrapolate this trend into the future. A pragmatic approach would consist of improving the general practice of industrial policy, along the lines sketched out in the previous section, while gently nudging policy-makers in the direction of greater awareness of how it can be better targeted on purely environmental concerns.

References Acemoglu, D., Aghion, P., Bursztyn, L., and Hémous, D. (2012), ‘The Environment and Directed Technical Change’, American Economic Review, 102(1), 131–66.

Aghion, P., Dechezleprêtre, A., Hémous, D., Martin, R., and Van Reenen, J. (2012), ‘Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry’, Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper No. 120, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Paper No. 102, November.

Bazilian, M., Onyeji, I., Liebreich, M., MacGill, I., Chase, J., Shah, J., Gielen, D., Arent, D., Landfear, D., and Zhengrong, S. (2013), ‘Re-considering the Economics of Photovoltaic Power’, Renewable Energy, 53, May, 329–38.

Bosetti, V., Carraro, C., Duval, R., Tovani, M. (2010), ‘What Should We Expect from Innovation?

A Model-based Assessment of the Environmental and Mitigation Cost Implications of Climaterelated R&D’, Fondazione ENI Enrico Mattei.

Bowen, A, and Fankhauser, S. (2011), ‘The Green Growth Narrative: Paradigm Shift or Just Spin?’ Global Environmental Change, 21(4), October, 1157–9.

Block, F. R., and Keller, M. R. (eds) (2011), State of Innovation: The US Government’s Role in Technology Policy, Paradigm Publishers.

Bump, P. (2013), ‘Solyndra Was This Much of an Outlier in the Energy Department’s Portfolio’, The Atlantic Wire, 6 May, available at http://www.theatlanticwire.com/national/2013/05/ energy-department-loan-guarantee-charts/64932/ Criscuolo, C., Martin, R., Overman, H. G., and Van Reenen, J. (2012), ‘The Causal Effects of an Industrial Policy’, CEP Discussion Paper No 1113, January.

490 Dani Rodrik Datla, A. (2012), ‘Shaping the Future of Solar Power: Climate Change, Industrial Policy, and Free Trade’, Harvard Kennedy School Case written under the direction of Robert Lawrence, January.

de Serres, A., Murtin, F., and Nicoletti, G. (2010), ‘A Framework for Assessing Green Growth Policies’, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 774, Paris, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Deutch, J., and Steinfeld, E. (2013), A Duel in the Sun The Solar Photovoltaics Technology Conflict between China and the United States, Report for the MIT Future of Solar Energy Study, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Evans, P. (1995), Embedded Autonomy: States and Industrial Transformation, Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press.

Fankhauser, S., Bowen, A., Calel, R., Dechezleprêtre, A., Grover, D., Rydge, J., and Sato, M. (2012), Downloaded from http://oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/ at Princeton University on February 5, 2015 ‘Who Will Win The Green Race? In Search of Environmental Competitiveness and Innovation’, Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper No. 111, and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Paper No. 94, September.

Freund, C. (2013), ‘Solar Panels: When Trade, the Environment, and Geopolitics Collide’, 12 June, available at http://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime/?p=3620 Greene, R. (2012), ‘Recurring Red Flags Failed to Slow Obama Administration’s Race to Help Solyndra’, Public Integrity, updated 23 January, available at http://www.publicintegrity.org/2011/09/13/6434/ recurring-red-flags-failed-slow-obama-administrations-race-help-solyndra Greenwald, T. (2013), ‘Secrets of Darpa’s Innovation Machine’, Forbes Magazine, 15 February, available at http://www.forbes.com/sites/tedgreenwald/2013/02/15/secrets-of-darpas-innovation-machine/

Hallegatte, S., Heal, G., Fay, M., and Treguer, D. (2011), ‘From Growth to Green Growth:

A Framework’, World Bank WPS5872, November.

IMF (2013), Energy Subsidy Reform: Lessons and Implications, Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund, 28 January, available at http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/012813.pdf Jaffe, A. B. (2002), ‘Building Program Evaluation into the Design of Public Research-Support Programmes’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 18(1), 22–34.

— Newell, R. G., and Stavins, R. N. (2004), ‘Technology and Environmental Policy: A Tale of Two Market Failures’, Resources for the Future Discussion Paper 04-38, October.

Karp, L., and Stevenson, M. (2012), ‘Green Industrial Policy: Trade and Theory’, Policy Research Working Paper 6238, October.

Laffont, J.-J., and Tirole, J. (1993), A Theory Of Incentives In Procurement And Regulation, Cambridge, MA, MIT Press.

Lerner, J. (2012), Boulevard of Broken Dreams: Why Public Efforts to Boost Entrepreneurship and Venture Capital Have Failed—And What to Do About It, Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press.

Martin, R., de Preux, L. B., and Wagner, U. J. (2009), ‘The Impacts of the Climate Change Levy on Business: Evidence from Microdata’, Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No 917, London School of Economics, March.

Matsuyama, K. (1990), ‘Perfect Equilibria in a Trade Liberalization Game’, American Economic Review, 80(3), June, 480–92.

Mazzucato, M. (2013), The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking Private vs Public Sector Myths, London, Anthem Press.

NRC (2001), Energy Research at DOE: Was It Worth It? Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy Research 1978 to 2000, National Research Council, Committee on Benefits of DOE R&D on Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog/10165.html Oremus, W. (2013), ‘Tesla, the Anti-Solyndra, Just Repaid Its Government Loans Nine Years Early’, Slate, 22 May, available at http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2013/05/22/tesla_pays_off_ doe_loan_9_years_early_first_us_car_company_to_repay_government.html Rodrik, D. (1999), The New Global Economy and Developing Countries, Washington, DC, Overseas Development Council.

— (2007), One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth, Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press.

Green industrial policy 491 Rodrik, D. (2008), ‘Normalizing Industrial Policy’, Commission on Growth and Development Working Paper No. 3, Washington, DC.

Sabel, C. (2004), ‘Beyond Principal–Agent Governance: Experimentalist Organizations, Learning and Accountability’, in E. Engelen and M. Sie Dhian Ho (eds), De Staat van de Democratie. Democratie voorbij de Staat, WRR Verkenning 3 Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press, 173–95.

Schmitz, H., Johnson, O., and Altenburg, T. (2013), ‘Rent Management—The Heart of Green Industrial Policy’, IDS Working Paper, No. 418, Institute of Development Studies, April.

Steer, A. (2013), ‘Resource Depletion, Climate Change and Economic Growth’, paper prepared for the Global Citizen Foundation Project on ‘Towards a Better Global Economy’, February.

Van Reenen, J. (2013), ‘Evaluation of State Aid’, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, presentation before DG-COMP, 23 April.

Downloaded from http://oxrep.oxfordjournals.org/ at Princeton University on February 5, 2015 Woolley, S. (2013), ‘Tesla Is Worse Than Solyndra: How the US Government’s Bungled Investment in the Car Company Cost Taxpayers at Least $1 billion’, Slate, 29 May, available at http://www.slate.

com/articles/business/moneybox/2013/05/tesla_is_worse_than_solyndra_how_the_u_s_government_bungled_its_investment.html Wu, M., and Salzman, J. (2013), ‘The Next Generation of Trade and Environmental Conflicts: The Rise of Green Industrial Policy’, unpublished paper, April.



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