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«DOCUMENT RESUME ED 278 089 EA 019 067 AUTHOR McCune, Shirley D. TITLE Guide to Strategic Planning for Educators. INSTITUTION Association for ...»

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Grea ter numbers of minority workers are also entering the work force. Currently, minorities make up 13 percent of the work force. This number is expected to expand to over 14 percent by 1995, based oii the higher birth rate in the minority community and a higher immigration rate among youth.24 Like women, minorities face discrimination in job and pay. Providing minority youth with the necessary knowledge and skills for participation in the work force is also a problem. In 1985 the high school dropout rate for white students was 14 percent, in contrast to 24 percent of black students and 40 percent of Hispanics.25 Another change in the work farce is the growing number of older workers. Although the Baby Boom generation has the education and experience, these workers must deal with increased competition for advancement and future pressures to make room for younger workers.

Baby Boomers must confront efforts to pressure them into early retirement, alternative positions, or taking sabbaticals and so on. The nation will be challenged to find ways to use the skills of older persons no longer in the work force.

Challenges for Education A review of economic changes may, at first glance, seem removed from the educational world. Yet the future of the U.S. economy will be influenced profoundly by the response of the educational community.

The shift from an industrial to an information society places the importance of educational and trthning systems in a new light as the ability to develop, analyze, and apply information becomes the primary activity of this society. Education and training systems, and the institutions that develop them, will be the critical human infrastructure of our society.

Education and training will occupy positions of greater importance in our society. Education is projected to sumass medicine and health care, becoming the largest industry in America.26 Thus educational expendituces are likely to increase dramatically. Some predict that the total annual expenditures for education will grow 20 to 25 percent between 1981 and 1990. These increases will be needed to educate the children of the baby boomers ($8-10 billion between 1981 and 1990), retrain midcareer employees ($60-150 billion), retrain technologically displaced workers ($45-120 billion), and retrain workers to use new technoloOes ($400-500 billion). This will necessitate an average yearly increase of $73-110 billion between 1984 and 1990.

The restructuring of our economy will change the role of education and training systems from programs for socializing youth and adults to institutioas essential to economic survival and well-being. This shift

GUIDE TO STRATEGIC PLANNING FOR EDUCATORS

requires the type of reexamination of public policy and past assumptions that strategic planning makes possible.

To solve problems we must discard old assumptions and structures.

Meeting our new needs may require new patterns of collaboration and work among government and private and public agencies. It may also force us to examine basic values such as the degree to which education and training are public, private, or employer responsibilities and how resources should be obtained to meet educational and training needs.

New forms of servicr dolivery, financing, and responsibility are likely to surface.

Strategic planning provides a process for examining possibilities.

It leads us to new levels of openness and understanding essential for inventing new approaches to meet society's changing needs.

Demographic Shifts People are the most important resource of any nation. The characteristics of a nation's population shape that nation's destiny. Most people have some awareness that the U.S. population is changing we are experiencing a "graying" or an aging of Americans, racialethnic minorities are increasing, family structures have changed, and children have become the poorest group within the population. Although we may have heard these statistics, the implications probably have not been fully considered by individuals or by the educational, social, or economic institutions that will be forced to deal with these changes. Some of the changes in our population and their implications for schools are discussed below.

Age: The Graying of America It was 1946. World War II was over for Americans, and a sense of urgency and a need to get things back to normal prevailed. "Normal" included having children and raising families. This spirit, highlighting as it did the importance of home and family, paved the way to a population increase so widespread that it was labeled America's "Baby Boom." In 1957, at the height of the Baby Boom, American women were having children at the rate of 3.7 per lifetime.27 The Baby Boom lasted from 1946 to 1964 and brought with it a host of social and economic problems. Home and school buildings couldn't keep pace with the demand, maternity wards and child health resources were strained, and the pattern of suburbia as a place to raise children became an American way of life.

The generation of Baby Boomers was to transform American culture. Parents who had lived through the Great Depression yearned for more for their children. The youth culture became a part of the AmerTHE CONTEXT FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING ican scene as the Baby Boomers made their mark on the educational, social, and economic institutions of our society.





Society was still struggling with the impact of the Baby Boom when the U.S. birth rate fell to 1.27 and we entered the years of the Baby Bust from 1964 to 1978. The Baby Bust was a time to breathe, but not for long. We soon faced the problems of school closings because of fewer students.

When the Baby Boomers approached child-rearing age, they tended to postpone having children, so the full impact of the adult Baby Boomers was not felt until 1978 when we began to experience an "Echo Baby Boom." (See fig. 1-4.) Due to population increases, the actual number of babies is comparable to the 1950s although thc birth rate is much lower. Today, the birth rate for American women is 1.87 per lifetime.

Of course, the rate differs considerably by race (e.g., fertility for white women is 1.7; for black women, 2.4; and 2.9 for Mexican-American women).28

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2_5 2.0

GUIDE TO STRATEGIC PLANNING FOR EDUCATORS

Birth patterns have given rise to two population groupingsthe larger number of Baby Boomers who are middle-aged, midcareer, and largely white; and a second gToup of young children who increasingly represent the offspring of minority groups. One set of concerns for tie larger society will be about caring for the needs of older citizens. A second set of concerns will be about dealing with the needs of growing numbers of children and providing for them as they grow to adulthood.

Most of the Baby Boomers will be retired by 2020, the cost of their retirement being provided in part by the smaller number of Baby Bust workers. Planning and caring for the demands of this ever-expanding age group, which is likely to live longer and longer due to improvements in health and medicine, is an awesome prospect. In 1950 for example, 17 workers supported each person receiving Social Security retirement benefits. By 1992, only three workers will support each retiree, and one of the three will belong to a minority group (fig. 1-5).29 Growth in educational services will be necessary as increased numbers of children enter elementary schools in the areas where young families are locating. This is also true considering the number of people ei-lrolling in adult and continuing education courses.

Racial-Ethnic Factors The heterogeneity of the U.S. population has increased and will continue to increase. Of the 240 million people in the United States, about 50 million (21 percent) are racial-ethnic minorities. Although minorities make up 21 percent of the total population, nearly 28 percent of the total public school population bebng to a minority group.

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Today, the average white American is 31 years old, the average black American is 25, and the average Hispanic American is only 23.3° White Americans are moving out of their child-bearing years just as minority Americans are moving into them. The population of minority children -,vill continue to increase in the future, and these numbers will be further increased by immigration. About 40 percent of legal immigrants come from Asia, and another 40 percent come from Mexico and Central and South America. Three-fourths of illegal immigrants come from Mexico and Central and South America. The largest number of immigrants (57,557 in 1984) came from Mexico, followed by the Philippines (42,767), Vietnam (37,236), Korea (33,042), India (24,964), China (23,363), and the Dominican Republic (23,147).3' The trend of European immigration has been replaced with a new trend dominated by Hispanic and Asian immigrants.

Increases in the school enrollments of minorities are evident in many areas of the country, but the bulk is concentrated in a group of states that starts in New York, moves southward down the Atlantic coast, and then westward ending in California. Black school enrollment is highest in the District of Columbia, Mississippi, South Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia; Hispanic enrollment is highest in New Mexico, Texas, California, and Arizona.

Three of our largest statesCalifornia, Texas, and Floridaare nearing a majority of minority students. More than 50 percent of California's elementary school students belong to minority groups, 46 per.

cent of Texas' students are black or Hispanic, and 32.2 percent of Florida's students are minority Americans.

Minorities also tend to concentrate in urban areas, and these concentrations have swelled because of immigrant resettlement. Large numbers of immigrants continue to settle in New York City, Los Angeles, Chicn-j, San Francisco, Anaheim, Miami, and Washington, D.C.

In the 25 argest school systems in the nation, a majority of the students come from minority groups.32 Increases in the percentages of minority students create significant problems for schools. Working with heterogeneous groups of students is invariably more complex and difficult. What this means for minority students is lower levels of achievement, a higher dropout level, and a general lower level of achievement of those skills that prepare one for life. For example, while the national dropout rate is 28 percent, within urban centers such as New York, Philadelphia, and Chicago, over 45 percent of high school students drop out.33 Why this discrepancy in academic success? The reasons are many.

Teachers and staff may expect less from minority and low-income chit.

dren. Teaching methods may not be sufficiently varied to meet the needs of heterogeneous populations. The curriculum may be irrelevant

GUIDE TO STRATEGIC _ANNING FOR TrATORS

to the lives of minority children. Resources for schools with high concentrations of low-income and minority children are likely to be inadequate. Necessary special services such as bilingual education, remediation, individualized instruction, counseling, and so on may be nonexistent or limited.

Failure in school among minority youth poses a threat the future of the nation. As literacy requirements for participation i. the larger society increase, lack of academic achievement condemns minorities and low-income children to limited futures, lessening the quality of life and benefits from society they can expect. In addition, the future social costs of undereducated youth in terms of crime, welfare, and lost economic productivity emphasize the immediate need for action to improve educational achievement. Finally, the diversity that has made America great is threatened. Each cultural group possesses unique information and insights. The blending of this information is essential for a future democratic society.

Family Patterns In 1955, the Dick and Jane familywith father working outside the home, a mother working in the home, and two or more children was the norm and basic model of family life. This picture described nearly 60 percent of the nation's families at that time. By 1980, only 11 percent of families fit this pattern, and today, only 4 percent (fig.

1-6).34 America's 80 million households and families are diversifying as family patterns increasingly include two working parents with children, childless couples (26 million as compared to 24 million married couples with children), single-parent families (10 million), individuals living alone (20 million), and other variations.35 A major reason for the change in American family life can be traced to increasing divorce rates. In 1960, 393,000 American couples were divorced; by 1985 that number had increased to 1,187,000.36 Today, one out of every two marriages ends in divorce. This increase has changed the economic, social, and psychological positions of women and children. In most cases of divorce, women end up with the children and the responsibility for supporting them. As a result, an ex-wife's disposable income is likely to fall by 73 percent in the year following divorce, while her ex-husband's rises by 42 percent.37 The rise in child poverty thus can be accounted for in part by increasing divorce rates and the restructuring of family income.

While most children continue to live with two parents, this number is decreasing rapidly. Only 4 of 10 children born in 1983 (41 percent) will live with both parents until they reach 18.38 2 3_

THE CONTEXT FOR ST ATEGIC P VG

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60% 11% 4% In 1983, 23 percent of all children lived in single-parent families.

In 91 percent of them, the head of the household was female. More than 50 percent of all black children lived in single-parent families, compared with 25 percent of Hispanic children and 16 percent of white children.39 An equally important trend in American life is the teenage mother.



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