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«University Press Scholarship Online International Development: Ideas, Experience, and Prospects Bruce Currie-Alder, Ravi Kanbur, David M. Malone, and ...»

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Transparency and accountability Industrial policy should be clear as to which specific measures are included and who is responsible for what. This serves two purposes: it reduces the possibility of rent-seeking activities, and it clarifies responsibilities as well as incentives for bureaucrats. Industrial policy has a strong selective component that can be justified only if the process behind its design and implementation is transparent and the government is considered responsible for it.

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Evaluation A crucial component of a successful industrial policy is a monitoring and evaluation mechanism.

The evaluation of policy measures can be very complicated because it is difficult to decide what has to be measured and how to measure it. Yet there is no doubt that policy evaluation is crucial, because it provides information that can be used to improve the policies. Without evaluation, there is no mechanism for adjusting and correcting the policies in response to changing circumstances.

Industrial policy as a process Industrial policy is not only a set of measures, but a process through which the government learns which policy mix is optimal given the current and expected future economic situation (see Rodrik 2007). This is why, while the past and current experiences of other countries can provide some insights, each country must find its own way in designing its industrial policy. The dynamic nature of the determining optimal policy implies that its content and objectives need to

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be continuously re-evaluated and updated—considering the results obtained—under the constraints provided by the available resources and capabilities.

While these are general elements that should characterize IP, the new approach also explicitly recognizes that policies cannot

Abstract

from the current economic situation of the specific country—in other words, from its production structure. This obviously means that IP should be designed to consider the available capabilities both in the government and in the private sector.

As a minimizing failure rule (safety rule), current available capabilities should guide the type and extent of IP to be carried on. In addition, IP should be modeled in accordance with the characteristics of entrepreneurship in the specific country. To be successful, the new approach needs to consider all these elements together.

Conclusion After a long hiatus, IP is making its way back onto developing countries’ agenda. In recent years, a large and increasing agreement is emerging that strengthening industry, particularly manufacturing, is the condition required to benefit from world trade and foster economic growth

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and development. This renewed interest in industrial policy follows from that, and IP is once again being viewed as a potentially effective instrument in inducing structural change and the growth of manufacturing.

Industrial policy is back but the world economy and the rules of the game have changed. This implies that a new approach is needed. The recent literature agrees that there is no single recipe for the optimal industrial policy. Rather, the emerging consensus is that effective industrial policy needs to be a mix of common practices and country-specific measures in which past experiences and domestic experimentation are both essential components.

While the economic literature on IP is vast, there is still much to be learned in terms of both theory and empirics. One aspect concerning theory that needs to be further explored is the political economy of industrial policy. The history of a country, its economic characteristics, and the political environment all determine what type of industrial policy is feasible and possible to implement. While some contributions have already opened this Pandora’s box, there is still much to learn about how the political equilibrium and other country-specific characteristics interact with industrial policy. As for the empirics, a promising approach is the use of randomized controlled experiments. Even if there are still very few such analyses, this approach—if coupled

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with the precious knowledge coming from detailed case studies and cross-country comparative analysis—could significantly improve our understanding of the characteristics of an effective industrial policy. This would be a very important achievement since, now more than ever, a better understanding of the theory and empirics of IP would contribute to designing better strategies for development.

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Aghion, Philippe (2012). “Industrial Policy, Entrepreneurship, and Growth,” in David Audretsch, Oliver Falck, Stephan Heblich, and Adam Lederer (eds.), Handbook of Research on Innovation and Entrepreneurship. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

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——— (2000). Industrializing under the New WTO Law. Mimeo, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

——— (2001). The Rise of the Rest: Challenges to the West from Late-Industrializing Economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

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Cassiolato, José Eduardo, Marcelo G. Pessoa de Matos, and Helena M. M. Lastres (2013).

“Innovation Systems and Development.” [THIS VOLUME] Chang, Ha-Joon (2002). Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective. London: Anthem Press.

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Cimoli, Mario, Giovanni Dosi, and Joseph E. Stiglitz (eds.) (2009). Industrial Policy and Development: The Political Economy of Capabilities Accumulation. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

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St. Martin’s Press.

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Evans, Peter B. (1995). Embedded Autonomy: States and Industrial Transformation.

Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou, and Giovanni Maggi (1999). “Protection for Sale: An Empirical Investigation,” American Economic Review, 89(5): 1135–55.

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Harrison, Ann (1994). “An Empirical Test of the Infant Industry Argument: Comment,” American Economic Review, 84(4): 1090–95.

Harrison, Ann, and Andrés Rodríguez-Clare (2010). Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries (NBER Working Paper No. 15261). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Hausmann, Ricardo, and Dani Rodrik (2003). “Economic Development as Self-Discovery,” Journal of Development Economics, 72(2): 414–50.

Head, Keith (1994). “Infant Industry Protection in the Steel Rail Industry,” Journal of International Economics, 37: 141–65.

Kapur, Devesh (2013). “India’s Economic Development.” [THIS VOLUME] Katz, Jorge M. (2000). Pasado y presente del comportamiento tecnológico de América Latina (Serie Desarollo Productivo No. 75).Santiago: United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

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Kim, Linsu (1993). “National System of Industrial Innovation: Dynamics of Capability Building in Korea,” in Richard R. Nelson (ed.), National Systems of Innovation: A Comparative Analysis.

Oxford: Oxford University Press, 357–83.

Krueger, Anne O. (1974). “The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society,” American Economic Review, 64(3): 291–303.

——— (1990). “Government Failures in Economic Development,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4(3): 9–23.

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Lall, Sanjaya (2000). Selective Industrial and Trade Policies in Developing Countries:

Theoretical and Empirical Issues (QEH Working Paper No. 48). Oxford: University of Oxford, Department of International Development.

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——— (2003). Reinventing Industrial Strategy: The Role of Government Policy in Building Industrial Competitiveness. Mimeo.

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Maddison, Angus (2001). The World Economy. A Millennial Perspective (Development Centre Studies). Paris: OECD.

Melo, Alberto (2001). Industrial Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean at the Turn of the Century (IADB Working Paper No. 459). New York: Inter-American Development Bank (IADB).

Mkandawire, Thandika (2001). “Thinking About Developmental States in Africa,” Cambridge Journal of Economics, 25(3) (May 2001): 289–313.

Mkandawire, Thandika, and Charles C. Soludo (1999). Our Continent, Our Future: African Perspectives on Structural Adjustment. Trenton, NJ: Africa World Press.

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Pack, Howard, and Kamal Saggi (2007). “The Case for Industrial Policy: A Critical Survey.” World Bank Research Observer, 21(2): 267–97.

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Rodrik, Dani (1995). “Trade and Industrial Policy Reform,” in Jere R. Behrman and

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——— (2004). Industrial Policy for the Twenty-First Century. Mimeo. Vienna: United Nations International Development Organization (UNIDO).

——— (2007). Normalizing Industrial Policy (CGD Working Paper No. 3). Washington, DC:

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Singh, Ajit (1995). “The State and Industrialization in India: Successes and Failures and the Lessons for the Future,” in Ha-Joon Chang and Robert Rowthorn (eds.), The Role of the State in Economic Change. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 170–86.

Soludo, Charles C., Osita Ogbu, and Ha-Joon Chang (eds.) (2004). The Politics of Trade and Industrial Policy in Africa: Forced Consensus? Trenton, NJ: Africa World Press/IDRC.

Stallings, Barbara, and Wilson Peres (2000). “Growth, Employment and Equity: The Impact of Economic Reforms in Latin America and the Caribbean.” Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.

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Szirmai, Adam (2011) “Industrialisation as an Engine of Growth in Developing Countries, 1950 Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 23(4):406–20.

Tussie, Diana, and Cintia Quiliconi (2013). “WTO and Development.” [THIS VOLUME] United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) (2007). Economic Development in Africa. Reclaiming Policy Space: Domestic Resource Mobilization and Developmental States. Geneva: UNCTAD.

United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) (2011). Industrial Policy for Prosperity: Reasoning and Approach (Development Policy, Statistics and Research Branch Working Paper 02/2011). Vienna: UNIDO.

Wade, Robert (2003). Governing the Market: Economic Theory and the Role of Government in East Asian Industrialization. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

World Bank (1993). The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy. Washington, DC: The World Bank.

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I extend my sincere thanks to the editors, contributors, and Philipp Neuerburg for useful comments on a previous version of the chapter.

Szirmai (2011) provides empirical evidence on the fundamental role of the manufacturing sector in the process of development.

Rodrik (2004) notes that direct support is not always necessary to solve this type of market failure.

Key references include Amsden (2001); Lin and Chang (2009); Cimoli, Dosi and Stiglitz (2009); Rodrik (1995, 2004, 2007); Wade (2003); Soludo, Ogbu, and Chang (2004).

It is very instructive to see how different are the conclusions reached by Krueger and Tuncer (1982) and Harrison (1994).

There is extensive literature suggesting that the Developmental State has been quite successful in inducing industrialization in East Asia, where the level of industrialization in the 1950s was lower than in Latin America (Amsden 1989, 2001; Wade 2003).

On the origins and causes of the African debt crisis, see UNCTAD (2007).

Similarly, the TRIPS agreement is making it increasingly difficult for developing countries to access advanced technology since it forbids copying and reverse engineering, two activities that have been important for technology accumulation in developing countries during the Developmental State period (see, e.g., the South Korean case) (Amsden 2000).

Note that these concerns may be somewhat misplaced. In fact the evidence on the positive effect of trade restrictions on manufacturing growth is at best mixed. For instance, the results of protectionist trade policy per se on domestic technological accumulation has in general been quite poor in most developing countries (Rodrik 2004).

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